Climate change is real but unavoidable - video script II.

Layer I.

Climate change is unavoidable. It is already happening and much more climate change will occur.

Because of the usefulness of fossil fuels, we will continue to burn them until there is none left. The only effective way of stopping that is by destroying civilization as we know it. And even then, the climate would continue to warm.

It is not a big deal though, a bit warmer climate is actually OK.

Layer II.

I. Earth is warming and it will continue to do so. Human carbon dioxide emissions are responsible for it. The climate takes time to respond to increasing Carbon Dioxide Concentrations. If humanity disappeared from Earth tomorrow, the climate would still continue to warm.

But humanity continues to put out ever more carbon dioxide diligently. Every year more than the year before. Not even environmentalists want to change that as it is simply impossible. Humanity has a silent agreement on burning ever more fossil fuels.

The fossil fuel burning will go on for long, probably until the last drop of oil is burned.

Even though we know that it is a very bad idea to change Earth’s atmosphere, we will continue to burn oil because of our everyday needs. We will always need to go someplace, cook some food, we will need to buy stuff that was made using fossil fuel.

As long as fossil energy remains cheaper than clean energy, humans will choose fossil. But even if tomorrow, magically, clean energy started to cost half as fossil energy, it would take several generations for our civilization to convert to clean. Replacing all power stations, cars, construction methods and industrial activity would take longer than exhausting all fossil fuels. Therefore no matter what we do, all fossil fuels will end up being used up completely. It is only a question of when.

If all people decided to stop using fossil fuels tomorrow, the global economy would collapse, famine and misery would follow. To stop people from burning fossil, you’d have to kill them. We could nuke our way out of climate change. But only if we kill nearly everybody.

Do you want to live on a prosperous, yet warmer planet or a slightly colder one but in caves?

Our leaders are not interested in taking meaningful steps to stop climate change. In democratic countries, leaders are interested in showing that they care about future generations. When they talk to their scientific advisors, though, they are, too, faced with the dark fact that all they can do is make policies that would curb carbon dioxide emissions by one percent in their country. Then they decide they can’t even do that much because 10% of their voters depend on jobs in the fossil energy industry. 100% of their voters will hate them if fuel prices rise because of their cleaner policies.

Nobody knows that climate change is unavoidable because we tend to prefer people with a ’can do’ attitude and we forget that what they can do is actually very minimal.

Layer III.

Süttenitüllendő!

The tools for understanding why climate change is real and unavoidable:

THERMODYNAMICS AND ECONOMICS

First, Thermodynamics. I suppose you all heard these before, so I am going to make this quick.

1. Number ONE: Earth is warming.

It used to be this warm. Now it is this warm. Curve going up. Warming.

2) Number TWO: Sea levels are rising.

It used to be this high, now it's this high. Curve going up. Sea level rising.

3) Number THREE: CO₂ concentration is up 45% compared to the pre-industrial era and rising.

4) Number FOUR: CO₂ leads to greenhouse warming.

The atmosphere is kinda like a car on a sunny day. It gets super warm inside because visible light can penetrate it, while the heat can not get out. That's because the atmosphere, like the car's windshield, is transparent to visible sunlight but opaque to heat. So it's a one way journey for the Sun's heat: a lot of it warming us up but only a tiny franction of the heat escaping.

If you're interested, this is because of CO2's infrared absorption on the chart here.

So, less heat is going out than before because of CO2 = WARMING!

5) Number FIVE: CO₂ output has been increasing.

Every year is a new record for how much CO₂ we, humans put in our atmosphere. Except for the year....

6) Number SIX:

Positive feedback loop phenomena could lead to further warming

Exemples: albedo decrease due to melting, water vapor as a greenhouse gas, permafrost methane, forest fires.

7) Number SEVEN: The oceans act as a thermal buffer

It takes 20x more energy to heat water compared to basalt rock or concrete, 30x more energy compared to steel.

It takes way more energy to heat the oceans then it takes to heat the continents. Water's heat capacity is huuuge!

Conclusions on the thermodynamics:

We, humans put out so much CO2 to the atmosphere that our planet will end up having a much warmer climate over the decades. We can already see a lot of the effects in rising temperatures and sea levels but way more climate change is likely to occur soon as oceans slowly warm and polar ice melts.

Hababagyurék!

Let's cover the ECONOMICS now!

Number EIGHT: Currently in most places it is more profitable to use fossil fuels than renewables.

Number NINE: Current infrastructure is set up to run on fossil fuels.

Cars currently run on gasoline, electricity is generated mainly by burning coal and gas.

Number TEN: Current efforts directed at reducing global warming merely target a lowered increase in CO₂ emissions. (ie. we don't even pretend to want to decrease the output)

Number ELEVEN:

This is a subtle one.

Here are 4 different formulations of essentially the same thing:

Most humans will do whatever it takes to put bread on the table. -or-

Some humans are short-sighted. - or

Most humans are driven by profit motives. -or-

Humans prefer jobs with the highest income to effort ratios.

Fadamarubudurék!

Using the assumptions in the 11 points above, let's apply some reason and logic and conclude:

(8) You get money for burning, eg: driving, cooking, office work, tar sand refining.

Most people have to commute to be able to make a living. Even just eating food seems to involve a lot of fossil fuel burning: from the agriculture through food processing: everything is powered by fossil fuel derived energy.

Developing countries' growth is predicated upon increasing carbon emissions. A better life quality in developing nations seems to require more burnt fossil fuels.

(9)(10)(11) We will burn all the fossil fuels we can find because some of us will need to do that in order to survive.

Only a fraction of humanity is needed to continue using fossil fuels in order for it to be used up completely at some point. It is only a matter of when all this CO2 will make it into the atmosphere because once it's up there, it's staying there forever and (6) over time, as thermal equilibrium sets in between the atmosphere and the seas and ice caps, a (1) new global temperature will emerge. Expert opinions differ as to what that temperature will be and when it will be attained, but it will certainly be (1) between 1.5 and 5 degrees celsius warmer and (2) sea level will be several meters higher.

Temperatures will be most affected near the poles, like super north and super south.

(9-11?) There is nothing that we can do to prevent climate change from happening at some point, all we can do is push it back a tiny bit. Better than taking hypocritical and useless steps to slow down climate change(10), we should prepare for its consequences and engineer our way around it.

We could actually stop creating more climate change, however, but it would entail getting rid of the entire human race. For as long as there are humans, they will continue to use up available resources as soon as they can get them.

While this will lead to a warmer and more humid climate, it is not entirely clear if humanity will be worse off. The downside is: population displacement

1. People will have to move away from the shores.

2. People, who live off the land in arid areas will have to relocate.

3. Extreme weather events will likely claim more lives and cause more material damage.

Possible advantages of a warmer climate:

1. Canada and Russia will become inhabitable

So why do most concerned humans want to stop it? Or even dream about somehow magically reversing it?

Believing that you have control over your environment and that you can produce desired results is essential for an individual’s well being.

Humans who don't feel like they could do anything if they wanted feel sad. People who better judge their own ability are actually worse off, feeling helpless and ultimately depressed. Humans are genetically programmed to self-delude!

It is a collective psychological condition. The majority view gets amplified.

Although there is nothing we can do to stop climate change, we can prepare for its consequences. Climate change is unavoidable. Transition to renewable energy is necessary. Buy your solar panels!

There is no escaping thermodynamics.

But there is also no escaping the human psyche.