Defending space exploration
Level I
We see no aliens.
This should worry us.
We must fly away from Earth and learn to live on Mars before we commit technological suicide.
Let's spend more on rockets! It actually pays for itself.
Let's make future generations proud of us!
Let's cherish Life and Human Civilization!
Level II
The Fermi Paradox: We can't detect any life anywhere in the Universe. This could mean that
1. We are the first ever civilization that achieved the technological level to connect with other life forms across the Galaxy.
In this case, the Great Filter is behind us, ie. it is extremely unlikely to become a technological civilization starting from mud. If this is the case, we should be immensely grateful that we have come so far and we should feel a sense of duty to sow the grain of conscious light across the rest of the Galaxy.
2. There has been multiple civilizations before us but they failed to reach the level of technologial progress necessary to communicate with or visit other star systems.
The Great Filter is ahead of us and we may run into it soon, as no other technological civilization made it past it for a long enough time for us to see them. Not knowing how much time we have left before we extinguish ourselves, a sense of urge would be appropriate to secure our future outside fragile Earth.
3. Aliens are oblivious to us and we are just not advanced enough to get in touch with them because their technology is still magic to us.
In this case, we can be happy that at least one alien civilization made it through the Great Filter, that might give us some hope. But by definition, we wouldn't know if this is the case because we wouldn't see them.
If the Continuation of the Human Legacy is of value, then we should divert vastly more resources to Space Exploration.
Space Exploration is important because:
1. It allows us to turn a hundred billion dead planets into living ones.
2. It could potentially ensure continuity of our legacy, culture, and life itself.
Level III
Let's take the Fermi Paradox seriously.
One plausible explanation to the paradox is that the Great Filter is exceedingly hard to cross. In other words, the Drake Equation's last parameter (namely, L, the length of time for which civilizations release detectable signals into space) must be very low, possibly indicating that we don't have much time left before we are rid of our technology.
What does it mean to cross the Great Filter?
We need to get to a point, where
Depending on
If the past century's close calls on nuclear war are any indication, it is reasonable that we should look at rows around 1% risk per year. Entire books are written on existential risks, of which global nuclear war is just one.
Other examples include: hostile artificial intelligence, bioterrorism, nanotechnology (grey goo), cyberterrorism and pandemics.
If we have a 1% yearly existential risk and we need at least 100 years to colonize Mars, we face a 63.4% chance of failing at the Great Filter. If we need 500 years to colonize Mars, we are pretty much doomed.
We have no control over what the yearly risk of facing the Great Filter is. It might only need a small group of people to start us down a tragic path.
We do have, however, control over how fast we build a backup colony on Mars. If Humanity is dear to you, give it an extra life. Allow it to save and load the Human Game. It is literally a question of life and death!
If we try to put a number on this:
The global economy (GDP, or, more pertinently: GGP (gross global product) today amounts to about 100 trillion dollars.
It is hypothesized that an independent Mars colony of about one million people could settle in about 100 years. The costs of such a venture are hard to assess but a conservative EUR 100 billion per year seems like a plausible upper limit (NASA's budget is about USD 20 billion).
100 billion to 100 trillion is only 0.1% of global GGP.
While some of that hypothetical 100 billion is actually spent, ie. literally burnt as rocket fuel, most of this money is invested:
We invest less than 1% of our resources in something that over about 1 million years could potentially extend human reach by about 100,000,000,000 (the number of planets in the Milky Way).
Think of this as: there are quadrillion dollar bills up on the sky for whoever is ready to take them.
Another financial approach:
If a Mars economy's GDP per capita is at least as high as that of a developed country's on Earth (very plausible given the high-tech infrastructure and wealthy settlers), say EUR 100,000 per person, this will yield a Mars GDP of EUR 100 billion.
It is more likely, however, that the GDP per capita will be at least 10x higher than this and a Mars Economy of about EUR 1 trillion is expected. Whoever produces food, oxygen, propellant and shelter on Mars will have a huge market for his products.
What is the value of human civilization and culture?
It is easier to relate to our own children and grandchildren than to the entire Human Race, so consider the possible future of your great-grandchildren, who will be approximately your age in 100 years. Statistically, there will be about 8 of them, 4 men and 4 women and they will probably know each other as they will be 2nd cousins.
How much would you pay to know that they are safe and thriving? If you could make a money deposit today for all your descendents' lives, what part of your salary would it represent?
How important is it that the particular music genre that you like the most, survives? How much would you pay to save Black Sabbath from certain oblivion?
I am asking my parents and grandparents: What the Hell?
Warfare motivated them to land on the Moon 50 years ago. They could have flown to Mars already. They could have developed technologies to allow me to fly to Mars cheaply. Why were people of my grandparents' generation so short-sighted and egotistic that they shut down the Space Program as soon as their imminent threats were adressed?
#istandwithspaceexploration
We see no aliens.
This should worry us.
We must fly away from Earth and learn to live on Mars before we commit technological suicide.
Let's spend more on rockets! It actually pays for itself.
Let's make future generations proud of us!
Let's cherish Life and Human Civilization!
Level II
The Fermi Paradox: We can't detect any life anywhere in the Universe. This could mean that
1. We are the first ever civilization that achieved the technological level to connect with other life forms across the Galaxy.
In this case, the Great Filter is behind us, ie. it is extremely unlikely to become a technological civilization starting from mud. If this is the case, we should be immensely grateful that we have come so far and we should feel a sense of duty to sow the grain of conscious light across the rest of the Galaxy.
2. There has been multiple civilizations before us but they failed to reach the level of technologial progress necessary to communicate with or visit other star systems.
The Great Filter is ahead of us and we may run into it soon, as no other technological civilization made it past it for a long enough time for us to see them. Not knowing how much time we have left before we extinguish ourselves, a sense of urge would be appropriate to secure our future outside fragile Earth.
3. Aliens are oblivious to us and we are just not advanced enough to get in touch with them because their technology is still magic to us.
In this case, we can be happy that at least one alien civilization made it through the Great Filter, that might give us some hope. But by definition, we wouldn't know if this is the case because we wouldn't see them.
If the Continuation of the Human Legacy is of value, then we should divert vastly more resources to Space Exploration.
Space Exploration is important because:
1. It allows us to turn a hundred billion dead planets into living ones.
2. It could potentially ensure continuity of our legacy, culture, and life itself.
Level III
Let's take the Fermi Paradox seriously.
One plausible explanation to the paradox is that the Great Filter is exceedingly hard to cross. In other words, the Drake Equation's last parameter (namely, L, the length of time for which civilizations release detectable signals into space) must be very low, possibly indicating that we don't have much time left before we are rid of our technology.
What does it mean to cross the Great Filter?
We need to get to a point, where
- Mars could back-colonize Earth
- Mars could forward-colonize other planets and satellites
- Whatever results in the suppression of Technological Civilization on Earth doesn't affect other colonies fatally.
OR
- We will have colonized other Star Systems
Depending on
- how likely the Great Filter is to occur in one particular year and
- how long we have until we successfully pass the Great Filter
If the past century's close calls on nuclear war are any indication, it is reasonable that we should look at rows around 1% risk per year. Entire books are written on existential risks, of which global nuclear war is just one.
Other examples include: hostile artificial intelligence, bioterrorism, nanotechnology (grey goo), cyberterrorism and pandemics.
If we have a 1% yearly existential risk and we need at least 100 years to colonize Mars, we face a 63.4% chance of failing at the Great Filter. If we need 500 years to colonize Mars, we are pretty much doomed.
We have no control over what the yearly risk of facing the Great Filter is. It might only need a small group of people to start us down a tragic path.
We do have, however, control over how fast we build a backup colony on Mars. If Humanity is dear to you, give it an extra life. Allow it to save and load the Human Game. It is literally a question of life and death!
The money arguments
If we try to put a number on this:
The global economy (GDP, or, more pertinently: GGP (gross global product) today amounts to about 100 trillion dollars.
It is hypothesized that an independent Mars colony of about one million people could settle in about 100 years. The costs of such a venture are hard to assess but a conservative EUR 100 billion per year seems like a plausible upper limit (NASA's budget is about USD 20 billion).
100 billion to 100 trillion is only 0.1% of global GGP.
While some of that hypothetical 100 billion is actually spent, ie. literally burnt as rocket fuel, most of this money is invested:
- paying workers, who will use this money in their respective economies on Earth
- building rockets and launch infrastructure, most of which is reusable
- developing technologies necessary for space exploration and likely useful for Earth
- building basic infrastructure on other planets
- sending machines that will enable sustainability by turning dead stuff into useful stuff, = sending profit generating machines
We invest less than 1% of our resources in something that over about 1 million years could potentially extend human reach by about 100,000,000,000 (the number of planets in the Milky Way).
Think of this as: there are quadrillion dollar bills up on the sky for whoever is ready to take them.
Another financial approach:
If a Mars economy's GDP per capita is at least as high as that of a developed country's on Earth (very plausible given the high-tech infrastructure and wealthy settlers), say EUR 100,000 per person, this will yield a Mars GDP of EUR 100 billion.
It is more likely, however, that the GDP per capita will be at least 10x higher than this and a Mars Economy of about EUR 1 trillion is expected. Whoever produces food, oxygen, propellant and shelter on Mars will have a huge market for his products.
The Moral Arguments
What is the value of human civilization and culture?
It is easier to relate to our own children and grandchildren than to the entire Human Race, so consider the possible future of your great-grandchildren, who will be approximately your age in 100 years. Statistically, there will be about 8 of them, 4 men and 4 women and they will probably know each other as they will be 2nd cousins.
How much would you pay to know that they are safe and thriving? If you could make a money deposit today for all your descendents' lives, what part of your salary would it represent?
How important is it that the particular music genre that you like the most, survives? How much would you pay to save Black Sabbath from certain oblivion?
I am asking my parents and grandparents: What the Hell?
Warfare motivated them to land on the Moon 50 years ago. They could have flown to Mars already. They could have developed technologies to allow me to fly to Mars cheaply. Why were people of my grandparents' generation so short-sighted and egotistic that they shut down the Space Program as soon as their imminent threats were adressed?
#istandwithspaceexploration
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